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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB ‘absolutely done’ with hikes after raising rates to all-time high, strategist saysPeter Schaffrik, chief European macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, discusses the European Central Bank’s latest interest rate decision and the outlook for monetary policy over the coming months.
Persons: Peter Schaffrik Organizations: ECB, RBC Capital Markets, Central Locations: European
Expectations for peak BoE rates reached 6.5% on July 11 after data showed record wage growth. But they fell back after a bigger-than-expected decline in consumer price inflation. Still, that inflation rate is nearly four times the BoE's 2% target and double the rate in the United States. Following the end of Silvana Tenreyro's tenure on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, fellow external member Swati Dhingra is likely to be alone in making the case that producer price inflation - rather than wage growth - is a better guide to future consumer price inflation trends. Annual producer price inflation fell to 0.1% in June, its lowest since December 2020, down from a high of nearly 20% last July, which it hit just a few months before CPI peaked at 11.1%.
Persons: BoE, Andrew Goodwin, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden, Peter Schaffrik, Cathal Kennedy, Silvana Tenreyro's, Swati Dhingra, Megan Greene, Bailey, Huw Pill, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, Reuters, MPC, HSBC, RBC, Committee, Kroll Institute, Tenreyro, Monetary, Thomson Locations: Britain, United States, Germany
Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.
Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean Central Bank interest rate hikes likely to continue in small increments, strategist saysPeter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, says the European Central Bank's interest rate decision was as expected, but revisions to inflation are higher than previously anticipated.
Persons: Peter Schaffrik Organizations: Central Bank, RBC Capital Markets
Economists polled by Reuters this week were unanimous that the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise rates to 4.5% next week, in sharp contrast to a poll two weeks earlier which showed only a slim majority expecting a hike. "Previously we had seen the MPC holding Bank Rate at 4.25% but the April labour market and March CPI inflation data were too much to ignore," said Peter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. Only a minority of economists polled by Reuters this week expect the BoE to raise interest rates above 4.5% this year. But investors in interest rate futures - whose views shift more rapidly - see rates reaching 4.75% or 5% by September. "In our view, further tightening beyond May can't be ruled out," said Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist at Oxford Economics.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean Central Bank maintained a 'hiking bias' in new guidance, strategist saysPeter Schaffrik, global macro strategist at RBC, reacts to the European Central Bank's latest interest rate decision, saying that further rate increases are expected even if the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes in the U.S.
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